Someone else is thinking what I am thinking!

I hate to simply rely on other people to say what I am thinking, however this article on MSN is the perfect advice for those who are getting greedy and thinking that rates are going to continue their downward trend.

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Banking/HomeFinancing/dont-wait-nows-time-to-refinance.aspx

Just because your neighbor got a certain rate does not mean you will get the same rate either better or worse. The days of a simple rate are long gone. Your FICO, loan amount, amount of equity in your home, type of loan, and many other factors will determine your rate. Take the time now to get a "Mortgage Fitness Checkup" to see what is the best plan for you and your financial future!

Time to get back at it!

So I disappeared for a while as I tried to work through the holiday season. Just prior to Thanksgiving rates started falling we saw refinance activity begin to pick up. Then on December 15, 2008 we saw a huge rally on mortgage backed securities push the 30 year down to historic lows. Some were lucky enough to lock in at 4.75%. That lasted for all of 2 1/2 hours and then investors pulled pricing and rates went back above 5%. Since then we have seen little drops followed by upward pressure keeping the 30 year around 5.25%. Still lower than 2003 and now we have this news:
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Banks-rise-Fed-details-planned/story.aspx?guid={EA305A84-90F7-44BF-8DF3-B0DD3687F789}&dist=hpts
Going into 2009 there will be more pressure to push the rates down to 5% or below. There is not a target number that the Fed is releasing for where they want rates, but you can be assured there will be more days like December 15, 2008 in the future.

For those wanting to take advantage of these rates I highly recommend talking to your mortgage professional and getting your application completed and all closing costs agreed upon ahead of time. Put a plan in place to lock at a rate that makes sense and then when the opportunity arrives for you to lock in to the rate it only takes a few minutes and you are locked in. Keep in mind when these opportunities arise, they don't last for days. The market or investors only want so much exposure and once they get their fill, they will pull that pricing. We never know how long it will last. Those that are prepared are the ones that benefit the most.

Have a safe and Happy New Year!

Sooner or Later I am Right!

Some of you may recall that 45 days ago I predicted the 30 year note to get to 6%. Then 2 weeks after that I again reiterated the stance. Well after the Fed stepped in and took over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, we have now seen the rates drop to 6% on a 30 year fixed. That is the good news, here is the bad news.

By taking over these institutions the government has put there finger in the dam. Now they are stuck there with there “finger” in the problem that is our mortgage industry. It is going to cost the tax payers BILLIONS to rescue these two giants. Compared to what we are spending in Iraq, that is a drop in the bucket, but none the less, it is Billions in dollars that could be better used to lower our debt as opposed to raise it. If the gamble pays off, and the money the government invests in Fannie and Freddie has a return, then they have made money. But when was the last time you wanted to gamble Billions of your hard earned dollars and that of your children?

A more realistic scenario is that these two entities become part of HUD in the next 4 years and lending guidelines for the next 4-8 years are slow to loosen. Regional banks and local banks will become the place creative financing, but only for those people that have excellent credit and significant assets or equity.

For questions or comments on this please contact Chris Scheer at cscheer@cornerstonestl.com or 314.223.9824.

What was I thinking?

The wonderful thing about interest rates is that you never can truly predict what direction they are heading in. For those of you that read my last post about rates going down, you at this point think I am a complete fool! At some level you might be right; however the same pressures that existed when I wrote that article are still there. They just have had some short term relief and the usual unpredictable influences that occur from time to time affect them. Let’s talk about where we were, where we went and where we are now?

Two weeks ago today our 30 year fixed on a conventional loan was about 6.75%. It was then that I started the article on rates dropping. Throughout that week the rates started to fall, so much that on Friday morning of that week I locked in a purchase at 6.125% on a 30 year loan. Around 1:00 that day it was announced that the Fed was stepping in and taking over Indy Mac bank. http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-indymac12-2008jul12,0,6071779.story At that point our rates jumped up to 6.375%.

The following Monday the market remained calm, and rates did not move. Then on Tuesday oil prices started to drop and over the next two days oil fell over $10 a barrel. All of a sudden Wall Street showed improvement in stock prices and the 6 week slide was halted. That meant that money was flowing back into stocks and out of bonds. Remember your economic lessons of previous posts, when the demand goes down the price goes down. On bonds when the price goes down the yield (interest rate) goes up. So by Friday of last week we were back to 6.75% on a 30 year loan.

As we start the week, we have oil starting to climb again and one of our two Presidential Candidates trying to move troops to Afghanistan to fight the War on Terror. As long as we are fighting Wars, we are going to have challenges controlling our markets. These wars are costing us BILLIONS and we are paying for that with borrowed money. Sooner or later that will have a negative effect on our economy and we will see rates come down.

For questions or comments about this please contact Chris Scheer at 314.223.9824 or cscheer@cornerstonestl.com.

Does the Fed really have any control over inflation?

As we sit here and watch a bunch of suits sit around and discuss theory, the rest of the nation is living reality. That reality is the fact that gas prices continue to rise, every other commodity is effected by the rising fuel prices and then to top that off, we have the real estate industry, the engine of the economy of the world continuing to crash or should I say foreclose in around us. To hear Gentle Ben Bernanke and his colleagues discuss the economy, you would think that they are living in a glass castle. Does anyone of them know what it is like to pump or pay for their own gas? When was the last time one of them went to the grocery store to by something to fix themselves?

These discussions about whether to raise or lower interest rates are simply wasted energy. We need to quit focusing on what the Fed is or isn’t going to do because what ever they do at this point is too little too late. They are now talking about raising interest rates to slow the economy. Are you kidding me? This economy is still going backwards. So called Fed experts will tell you that they are managing the economy six months in the future, but if that is they case, they really screwed up six months ago! I have an idea, let’s deal with the here and now. You know, like when they rescued Countrywide from going Bankrupt by getting Bank of America to be the lead bank in the buyout of Countrywide. Or more recently when Bear Sterns was crashing and they got J.P. Morgan Chase to purchase them. Both of these happened overnight and in theory were done to keep things from crashing around us.

Dear Ben, put pressure on the White House to solve the rising energy price challenge. That is your inflation monster. Until you figure out how to do that, everything else you are doing is just giving the talking heads on MSNBC something to talk about so they can keep their jobs.

For questions or comments, please contact Chris Scheer at cscheer@cornerstonestl.com or 314.223.9824.

The End of 100%

In the ever changing landscape of lending, we had the latest and most significant change take place this past Monday. All of the Private Mortgage Insurance Companies announced that they would no longer issue mortgage insurance on any loan with a loan to value greater than 97%. On a side note I can remember when we could only do a 97% loan and then just one of the mortgage insurance companies said they would insure up to 100% and it was months before the others joined in when the LTV was going up, but now that the maximum LTV is going down, they are all are the same page and quick to make the move. Kind of like rats jumping off a sinking ship! But I digress! Now there are few instances that one of the companies will honor the 100% commitment but it is in such a limited scope that you have a better chance of winning tonight’s Powerball drawing than getting a 100% loan.

So why are they doing this? First of all they are all taking a bath financially in mortgage insurance claims on loans that are in default and foreclosure due to the current mortgage crisis. Some would argue that they have been making money hand over fist for years as their losses have been limited as the housing prices grew and mortgage rates were declining or low, but keep in mind that during that time that they had to fight to keep market share and revenues as the banks created the second mortgages that would go to 100% and in the industry it was common practice to do a first mortgage for 80% and the second for the remaining amount to avoid mortgage insurance. So let’s not rush to judgment on the profits of the mortgage insurance companies over the last 7 years. Secondly and more importantly, we are seeing house values in some areas decline. So if they did insure a loan that was a 100% loan in one of those areas and the house price has declined, they are now insuring for over 100% of the value of the house. How smart is that?

What does this leave us? Thanks to the stimulus package that was passed we know have higher FHA loan limits and in most cases the cost of the monthly mortgage insurance will be less on an FHA loan. Also, in the old days, before 100% financing, we did most loans using gifts, tax returns, SAVINGS, as a way to come up with the initial 3% for a down payment. Imagine that, you have to save some money to buy a house?

I will write more on the increase in the FHA loan limits and the opportunities that are presented by this later this week. For questions or comments on this please contact Chris Scheer at cscheer@cornerstonestl.com or 314.223.9824.

Market Update January 25, 2008

The very same group of lawmakers that were on a mission at the end of last year to pass a bill that “reformed” the mortgage industry by putting heavy re­strictions and potential penalties for providing consumers much needed diver­sity in mortgage products, is now “coming to the rescue” of some struggling consumers by passing a stimulus plan that includes a way for more homeown­ers with viable credit to finance even larger loans and put a few hundred dollars extra in their pockets.

Industry analysts have been saying for weeks that low mortgage interest rates are not enough to help turn away the wave of potential foreclosures that are beginning to flow into the conforming mortgage market. The “reform” scared many lenders straight back to lending guidelines from the 90’s which severely hindered many homeowner’s ability to take advantage of the current low rates.

The stimulus package that has been approved by the House, and is going to the Senate next week, will give relief to some of these homeowners. As part of the proposed package, the current conforming loan limit would be increased to as high as $729,750 which will allow many homeowners with jumbo loans to refinance at lower rates. It might also allow homeowners with combo loans to possibly refinance into one lower monthly payment and rate. These increases are also being offered to FHA loans as part of this package to allow the Federal Housing Administration to help in the recovery efforts. Additional benefits could be felt by homebuilders and realtors who have struggled to sell properties at the higher price point or who can’t get buyers off the fence due to poor con­sumer sentiment about the market.

It’s now time to hold your breathe as this package is put before the Senate. Although some Senators are commenting publicly that they would like to see it fly through as well, history shows that it only takes one person with their own agenda to stop the progress of any package. If it goes through, we might be seeing the beginning of a refinance rally which would be welcome by many in the industry.

For questions or comments, please contact Chris Scheer at cscheer@cornerstonestl.com or 314.223.9824.

What Just Happened?

In a move not seen in recent history the Federal Reserve has stepped in and lowered short term interest rates. I could go on and on about the fears of the world about the U.S. economy going into recession, but you can get plenty of that information from other sources such as http://online.wsj.com/article_email/SB120100837976106391-lMyQjAxMDI4MDIxMzAyMDM4Wj.html or http://www.forbes.com/2008/01/23/europe-interest-rates-markets-equity-cx_vr_0123markets06.html?partner=msn.

What I want to discuss is the ramifications this has on real estate and the mortgage industry.

The bond market responded to the rate cute as I would have expected. Prior to the move the market had priced in a 50 basis point cut at the next Fed meeting. All it did yesterday was add the other 25 basis points to the Fed move and now we are seeing the 30 year fixed in the 5.5% range. If borrowers are paying attention, you can now purchase a home with little or no money down and get a fixed rate mortgage for 6% or less. Housing prices are at near bargain basement prices. The Fed is betting that aside from calming the fears of the world markets, this will be the impetus that will get people back out buying houses. I personally think that we are still months away from that day. Even thought the inventory is overloaded with good houses for first time homebuyers and there are bargains everywhere you look. It will fall upon the middle class of America to jump start the real estate cycle.

For the past 3 years the middle of the price range has been the house slowest to move. The people who are looking to buy their second or third house to move into or the people who anticipate or have just received a promotion at work and are ready to get a bigger house. These are the people who need to get back into the game. For quite some time they have been standing on the sidelines hearing all the gloom and doom about the economy and they are smart enough to recognize that they could lose their job. We are a long way away from them feeling secure enough to make that move. Until then we will continue to see housing struggle.

For questions or comments, please contact Chris Scheer at cscheer@cornerstonestl.com or 314.223.9824.

A Perfect Example!

For those of you that have followed my postings you know that I warn people about going to the “Dark Side” to get their mortgage. The “Dark Side” is those mortgage companies that you see and hear advertising for business all of the time. I realize that we all have business plans and ways to generate business. Advertising is a way to do so, but when it comes at the expense of the client, especially a client that cannot afford to pay the difference then it is not the best way to do business.

On Friday evening I received a call from a lady who was referred to me by one of my professional relationships. She had applied with a local mortgage company and was trying to refinance a loan that she owed $61,000. In her history she has a bankruptcy and she currently lives paycheck to paycheck with no savings. Because she had tremendous equity in her home she is able to refinance with little or no challenges. On a scale of 1-10 with 10 being the hardest, this is about a 4 when it comes to doing her loan. Thus I really can’t justify charging her a premium to do her loan because it would be a lot of work. More on that later, but the local mortgage company had been pressuring her to close this week and call it women’s’ intuition or just a nagging feeling she felt uneasy about closing so she mentioned it to my professional partner and she then called me. When we visited it turns out that the difference in my closing costs and those charged by the local mortgage company were $2,500. Of that $1,640 was a broker fee which was being charged instead of charging 2.5 points. Not only is that rape of a person who cannot afford it but because they are charging the broker fee instead of points the broker fee is not tax deductible. The points at least can be amortized over the life of the loan if they chose to charge points.

It is needless to say that this lady has canceled her transaction with the local mortgage company and is proceeding with Cornerstone. That is why I tell people to steer away from the “Dark Side”!

Now back to the premium for doing excessive work. On Tuesday of this week I received a phone call from a Realtor who was in a panic. Her client had been trying to back out of his purchase contract and the lender he was working with had canceled his transaction. When the client found out he had no legal grounds to get out of the contract and had to proceed or risk being sued he agreed to proceed but could not find a lender that could get him a loan in 2 days. The lender he had applied with was a national lender working his deal out of state and because they have no desire to have a relationship with either the borrower or Realtor they didn’t want to go the extra mile to get the job done. This is the type of challenge I love and I told the realtor and the client that as long as they did exactly what we told them I would be able to close in 48 hours. Since we had to drop everything we were doing to get this loan done we did charge a premium in the interest rate. Instead of making what we normally make we made an additional 1 point. I explained this to the client and they understood completely. Closing happened on time and all the parties were completely satisfied.

So there are times when people should pay a higher cost to acquire a mortgage, but unfortunately the people that should pay a few and far between and the ones that shouldn’t usually make the mistake of going to the people that will take advantage of them either because they don’t have their best interest in mind or simply their business plan does not allow them the flexibility to treat people fairly!

For comments or questions please contact Chris Scheer at cscheer@cornerstonestl.com or 314.223.9824.

Are Rates Falling?

Well the year has started off with interest rates heading lower, but have they really? With Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac adding risk based pricing to their delivery fees for all loans delivered after March 1, 2008 see https://www.efanniemae.com/sf/guides/ssg/annltrs/pdf/2007/0716.pdf. Who knows what the rate will be at any given time. Couple that with this announcement; https://www.efanniemae.com/sf/guides/ssg/annltrs/pdf/2007/0721.pdf

And the interest rate that I thought we should have is now at least .125% higher and in some cases .375% higher. Even though the price of mortgage backed securities continues to rise and the yield or effective interest rate is falling, the interest rate for most consumers is actually going up or staying the same!

Economic news favored rates falling and currently the trend has been favorable. However this week we have at least 3 Fed Governors speaking at various functions and the minutes from the December Fed meeting will be released. The market watchers will spend far too many hours dissecting the comments from these and we will see the bond market either give up its gains or take on a whole new energy as anticipation of the next Fed meeting begins. Either way, at this point it is going to take a strong push to get the 30 year fixed back down to 5.5% or below. Mostly due to the above mentioned pricing by Fannie and Freddie, but also keep in mind that the secondary departments of the major investment banks are under pressure to be profitable with the REO departments getting killed with all of the foreclosures. Thus when they do their pricing models, expect them to error on the conservative side.

For comments or questions, please contact Chris Scheer at cscheer@cornerstonestl.com or 314.223.9824.

The Newspaper Game!

Have you ever looked in your local paper or looked in the Sunday Newspaper to get interest rates for mortgages? After looking did you take the time to call some of the lenders? What did you find? I will be that 99% of the time if you called you found out that the interest rate was not available. Or that the rate was available if you were willing to pay the points listed in the paper. If I am the consumer I am thinking what kind of game is this?

When you look at the rates posted in the paper I break them down into 3 classes; Liars, honest but trying to look good, and I don’t care I am spending the company’s money. I will work backwards on this list. When I managed a branch for a large corporation, part of their business plan was to be in the newspaper. Their rates were not competitive and when I would have discussions with my boss he would say “don’t worry about putting a rate in there, just make sure our name and phone number are in bold print.” Their philosophy was that their name alone would get the business and that they viewed the paper as another place to advertise their name. Never mind that people were checking rates, just get the name out there in one more place. These are categorized by higher than average interest rates or the famous “Call for rates.” An interesting marketing strategy, but it would cause the question from the consumer, what is your rate? This was all the company was trying to do, get the phone to ring.

Then you have the honest but trying to look good. I will place the company I work for now in this category. They use the put a low rate in with points trick. This is where they put a rate in with 1 origination and 1 discount point so that the rate seems as low as the others. If you were to equate that rate out to a 0 point loan then it would be rate we could and would honor, but the rate in the paper will be expensive. At least we let you know how expensive it will be.

Lastly, we have the liars; these are the guys that use the famous bait and switch tactic. They put a rate in that is well below market, usually .25% or more and then when you call them they say that the rate was there last week but the market has moved or worse they tell you they can do that rate and then when you get your application you have charges that equate to 1 or 2 points. Again, it is the concept to do anything to make the phone ring and then get the borrower to commit. Once you have them committed you can usually coerce them or fast talk them to the closing table.

So what does the rate table in the paper do? Well I would personally use it as a guide to where interest rates are. Look for the middle of the rate scale and that is a good chance that you will be able to get that rate without excessive fees or expense.

For comments on this please contact Chris Scheer at cscheer@cornerstonestl.com or 314.223.9824.

FollowThe Bouncing Bond Market!

For those that take the time to check this blog often, you will notice that over the last two weeks we have had the past two Mondays highlighted strong buying on the bond market which has driven the 30 year fixed interest rate to 5.875% and then 5.75% this week. However as you will now see, in both cases that rate did not hold through the week. On Thursday and Friday of this week Wall Street came to the conclusion that they were not going to get the .50% rate cut from the Fed that they wanted. Once that happened the blood letting began on the bond market and the 30 year fixed that was once at 5.75% is now at 6.125%. For all those inexperienced loan officers, the look on their faces as they watched the rate changes occur almost every hour for 2 days straight was priceless. Actually there was a price, it was the price that they had to pay to honor the locks that they had committed to and had not taken the time to lock with the investors.

So what does all this volatility mean to the homeowner? The millions of Americans who are looking for some relief from their mortgage payment; what do they do? Maybe the ones who were aggressive and took out 3 or 5 year adjustable rate mortgages in 2002 and 2003 and now those A.R.M.’s are going to start adjusting. They had a chance to lock in over the past two weeks at less than 6%, but only if they were on top of what was going on or their loan officer was. I know I personally talked to 10 people over the past two days that I had called on the previous 2 Mondays but they didn’t bother to return the call until yesterday or today. For them, all I could do was tell them they missed out and offer to get there information ready for the next time rates drop. But will there be a next time?

We will find out more this week when the Fed meets. At this point my crystal ball points to a .25% rate cut. Given the swing on Bonds Friday this may push the 30 year back to 6% or maybe slightly below. After that I think the Fed is going to hold steady and not do anything for another 60 days.

For your comments or questions, please contact Chris Scheer at cscheer@cornerstonestl.com or 314.223.9824.