Time to get back at it!

So I disappeared for a while as I tried to work through the holiday season. Just prior to Thanksgiving rates started falling we saw refinance activity begin to pick up. Then on December 15, 2008 we saw a huge rally on mortgage backed securities push the 30 year down to historic lows. Some were lucky enough to lock in at 4.75%. That lasted for all of 2 1/2 hours and then investors pulled pricing and rates went back above 5%. Since then we have seen little drops followed by upward pressure keeping the 30 year around 5.25%. Still lower than 2003 and now we have this news:
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Banks-rise-Fed-details-planned/story.aspx?guid={EA305A84-90F7-44BF-8DF3-B0DD3687F789}&dist=hpts
Going into 2009 there will be more pressure to push the rates down to 5% or below. There is not a target number that the Fed is releasing for where they want rates, but you can be assured there will be more days like December 15, 2008 in the future.

For those wanting to take advantage of these rates I highly recommend talking to your mortgage professional and getting your application completed and all closing costs agreed upon ahead of time. Put a plan in place to lock at a rate that makes sense and then when the opportunity arrives for you to lock in to the rate it only takes a few minutes and you are locked in. Keep in mind when these opportunities arise, they don't last for days. The market or investors only want so much exposure and once they get their fill, they will pull that pricing. We never know how long it will last. Those that are prepared are the ones that benefit the most.

Have a safe and Happy New Year!

What was I thinking?

The wonderful thing about interest rates is that you never can truly predict what direction they are heading in. For those of you that read my last post about rates going down, you at this point think I am a complete fool! At some level you might be right; however the same pressures that existed when I wrote that article are still there. They just have had some short term relief and the usual unpredictable influences that occur from time to time affect them. Let’s talk about where we were, where we went and where we are now?

Two weeks ago today our 30 year fixed on a conventional loan was about 6.75%. It was then that I started the article on rates dropping. Throughout that week the rates started to fall, so much that on Friday morning of that week I locked in a purchase at 6.125% on a 30 year loan. Around 1:00 that day it was announced that the Fed was stepping in and taking over Indy Mac bank. http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-indymac12-2008jul12,0,6071779.story At that point our rates jumped up to 6.375%.

The following Monday the market remained calm, and rates did not move. Then on Tuesday oil prices started to drop and over the next two days oil fell over $10 a barrel. All of a sudden Wall Street showed improvement in stock prices and the 6 week slide was halted. That meant that money was flowing back into stocks and out of bonds. Remember your economic lessons of previous posts, when the demand goes down the price goes down. On bonds when the price goes down the yield (interest rate) goes up. So by Friday of last week we were back to 6.75% on a 30 year loan.

As we start the week, we have oil starting to climb again and one of our two Presidential Candidates trying to move troops to Afghanistan to fight the War on Terror. As long as we are fighting Wars, we are going to have challenges controlling our markets. These wars are costing us BILLIONS and we are paying for that with borrowed money. Sooner or later that will have a negative effect on our economy and we will see rates come down.

For questions or comments about this please contact Chris Scheer at 314.223.9824 or cscheer@cornerstonestl.com.

We are on the cusp!

Undeniably the stock market has become a Bear market. That means that the Dow industrial average is down more than 20%. Sooner or later, those investors are going to start to move to safer investments. What are safer investments you ask? Well I am going to suggest that Mortgage Backed Securities are safer investments. For the last 12 months, this investment has been out of favor with everyone from institutional investors to foreign investors. As housing prices have fallen drastically on both coasts the middle of the country has done a good job of holding value. The Countrywide Mortgage debacle has turned a corner and is now Bank of America’s problem. The Fed has not had to rescue any more mortgage companies for the last 30 days. Second quarter earnings are being reported this week and by now all the major companies have figured out that they cannot hide the losses from the mortgage mess, so those will be dealt with in these reports.

That leaves us with mortgage backed securities in position to be an attractive investment again; especially the Ginnie Mae government loans. With over 70% of all loan applications that I am taking right now being for FHA or VA loans, I am confident that most other successful originators are doing the same. This will create a huge supply for these investments and the hawkers of these securities will have the product to sell and most of these properties will not be those that are going into foreclosure but being bought out of foreclosure by people who have the means and desire to make their mortgage payments. Sooner or later, Wall Street is going to start moving these securities and then the laws of economics will take over. As demand goes up so does price. On a bond, for those of you that don’t remember, when the price goes up the yield (see interest rate) goes down. Thus, even though there is discussion of the Fed raising short term interest rates, what they really are hoping for is that the lowering of short term rates that they did months ago will finally take hold on the long rates and we will see the 30 year fixed rate get below 6% again.

Now I realize that this is optimistic thinking on my part, but if you listen to the doom and gloom prognosticators out there saying that the economy and the stock market are still in for tougher times, someone has to be willing to bet on the bond market. Today I am that person!!!

What a difference a day makes!

Over the past 11 months the mortgage industry has gone through one of the most tumultuous times in recent history. As mortgage companies went out of business, others were rescued by the Federal Reserve and program guidelines changed like your mother told you to change your underwear; DAILY. Many people, loan officers included were caught not being up to date on the ever changing landscape of guideline changes. I can admit I had challenges with 2 condo loans in particular.

In addition to the ever changing landscape of product and guideline changes we have also seen a rate climate that reminds me of a playground toy, the sliding teeter totter! Rates go up one day, down the next, up again then up and up and then a drastic drop followed by more upward movement. I continue to preach to my clients, that locking in is the best defense in the current market. We can always look to renegotiate if rates go down drastically but, once they go up you are screwed. As my old mentor told me, “pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered.

Let’s hope that the reforms FHA has instituted effective July 14, 2008 and the merger of Countrywide and Bank of America signal a change to the whirlwind of changes and the rest of the year is filled with calm waters for borrowers to sail in.

For questions or comments on this post, please contact Chris Scheer at cscheer@cornerstonestl.com or 314.223.9824.

Does the Fed really have any control over inflation?

As we sit here and watch a bunch of suits sit around and discuss theory, the rest of the nation is living reality. That reality is the fact that gas prices continue to rise, every other commodity is effected by the rising fuel prices and then to top that off, we have the real estate industry, the engine of the economy of the world continuing to crash or should I say foreclose in around us. To hear Gentle Ben Bernanke and his colleagues discuss the economy, you would think that they are living in a glass castle. Does anyone of them know what it is like to pump or pay for their own gas? When was the last time one of them went to the grocery store to by something to fix themselves?

These discussions about whether to raise or lower interest rates are simply wasted energy. We need to quit focusing on what the Fed is or isn’t going to do because what ever they do at this point is too little too late. They are now talking about raising interest rates to slow the economy. Are you kidding me? This economy is still going backwards. So called Fed experts will tell you that they are managing the economy six months in the future, but if that is they case, they really screwed up six months ago! I have an idea, let’s deal with the here and now. You know, like when they rescued Countrywide from going Bankrupt by getting Bank of America to be the lead bank in the buyout of Countrywide. Or more recently when Bear Sterns was crashing and they got J.P. Morgan Chase to purchase them. Both of these happened overnight and in theory were done to keep things from crashing around us.

Dear Ben, put pressure on the White House to solve the rising energy price challenge. That is your inflation monster. Until you figure out how to do that, everything else you are doing is just giving the talking heads on MSNBC something to talk about so they can keep their jobs.

For questions or comments, please contact Chris Scheer at cscheer@cornerstonestl.com or 314.223.9824.

A Big Nothing!

Well the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by another .5% today which makes that 1.25% in the last 10 days. What did Wall Street do? They acted excited, but by the end of the day the dow was down 37 points. The bond market was even less excited and there was almost no movement at all. Why is the big question?

I would love to tell you that I know the answer, but I don’t. Here is my best guess as to what will happen over the next 30 days. As the heavy money has a chance to digest the Fed comments and view the rest of the economic indicators that are coming out this week they will determine what direction the market will go. This week will still be a week with potential wild movements in both directions for mortgage interest rates. As the market recognizes that the Fed may have to take further action, positions on the bond market will be taken and we will see the 30 year fixed get down to 5.5% or possible below.

Here are the economic indicators that are coming out this week:

1/30 Gross Domestic Product (Advance) (BEA) 2007 Q4 8:30

1/31 Personal Income (BEA) December 8:30

Construction Put in Place (Census) December 10:00

For more you can go to http://www.economicindicators.gov/

If you have questions or comments about this please contact Chris Scheer at cscheer@cornerstonestl.com or 314.223.9824.

Market Update January 25, 2008

The very same group of lawmakers that were on a mission at the end of last year to pass a bill that “reformed” the mortgage industry by putting heavy re­strictions and potential penalties for providing consumers much needed diver­sity in mortgage products, is now “coming to the rescue” of some struggling consumers by passing a stimulus plan that includes a way for more homeown­ers with viable credit to finance even larger loans and put a few hundred dollars extra in their pockets.

Industry analysts have been saying for weeks that low mortgage interest rates are not enough to help turn away the wave of potential foreclosures that are beginning to flow into the conforming mortgage market. The “reform” scared many lenders straight back to lending guidelines from the 90’s which severely hindered many homeowner’s ability to take advantage of the current low rates.

The stimulus package that has been approved by the House, and is going to the Senate next week, will give relief to some of these homeowners. As part of the proposed package, the current conforming loan limit would be increased to as high as $729,750 which will allow many homeowners with jumbo loans to refinance at lower rates. It might also allow homeowners with combo loans to possibly refinance into one lower monthly payment and rate. These increases are also being offered to FHA loans as part of this package to allow the Federal Housing Administration to help in the recovery efforts. Additional benefits could be felt by homebuilders and realtors who have struggled to sell properties at the higher price point or who can’t get buyers off the fence due to poor con­sumer sentiment about the market.

It’s now time to hold your breathe as this package is put before the Senate. Although some Senators are commenting publicly that they would like to see it fly through as well, history shows that it only takes one person with their own agenda to stop the progress of any package. If it goes through, we might be seeing the beginning of a refinance rally which would be welcome by many in the industry.

For questions or comments, please contact Chris Scheer at cscheer@cornerstonestl.com or 314.223.9824.

What Just Happened?

In a move not seen in recent history the Federal Reserve has stepped in and lowered short term interest rates. I could go on and on about the fears of the world about the U.S. economy going into recession, but you can get plenty of that information from other sources such as http://online.wsj.com/article_email/SB120100837976106391-lMyQjAxMDI4MDIxMzAyMDM4Wj.html or http://www.forbes.com/2008/01/23/europe-interest-rates-markets-equity-cx_vr_0123markets06.html?partner=msn.

What I want to discuss is the ramifications this has on real estate and the mortgage industry.

The bond market responded to the rate cute as I would have expected. Prior to the move the market had priced in a 50 basis point cut at the next Fed meeting. All it did yesterday was add the other 25 basis points to the Fed move and now we are seeing the 30 year fixed in the 5.5% range. If borrowers are paying attention, you can now purchase a home with little or no money down and get a fixed rate mortgage for 6% or less. Housing prices are at near bargain basement prices. The Fed is betting that aside from calming the fears of the world markets, this will be the impetus that will get people back out buying houses. I personally think that we are still months away from that day. Even thought the inventory is overloaded with good houses for first time homebuyers and there are bargains everywhere you look. It will fall upon the middle class of America to jump start the real estate cycle.

For the past 3 years the middle of the price range has been the house slowest to move. The people who are looking to buy their second or third house to move into or the people who anticipate or have just received a promotion at work and are ready to get a bigger house. These are the people who need to get back into the game. For quite some time they have been standing on the sidelines hearing all the gloom and doom about the economy and they are smart enough to recognize that they could lose their job. We are a long way away from them feeling secure enough to make that move. Until then we will continue to see housing struggle.

For questions or comments, please contact Chris Scheer at cscheer@cornerstonestl.com or 314.223.9824.