What was I thinking?

The wonderful thing about interest rates is that you never can truly predict what direction they are heading in. For those of you that read my last post about rates going down, you at this point think I am a complete fool! At some level you might be right; however the same pressures that existed when I wrote that article are still there. They just have had some short term relief and the usual unpredictable influences that occur from time to time affect them. Let’s talk about where we were, where we went and where we are now?

Two weeks ago today our 30 year fixed on a conventional loan was about 6.75%. It was then that I started the article on rates dropping. Throughout that week the rates started to fall, so much that on Friday morning of that week I locked in a purchase at 6.125% on a 30 year loan. Around 1:00 that day it was announced that the Fed was stepping in and taking over Indy Mac bank. http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-indymac12-2008jul12,0,6071779.story At that point our rates jumped up to 6.375%.

The following Monday the market remained calm, and rates did not move. Then on Tuesday oil prices started to drop and over the next two days oil fell over $10 a barrel. All of a sudden Wall Street showed improvement in stock prices and the 6 week slide was halted. That meant that money was flowing back into stocks and out of bonds. Remember your economic lessons of previous posts, when the demand goes down the price goes down. On bonds when the price goes down the yield (interest rate) goes up. So by Friday of last week we were back to 6.75% on a 30 year loan.

As we start the week, we have oil starting to climb again and one of our two Presidential Candidates trying to move troops to Afghanistan to fight the War on Terror. As long as we are fighting Wars, we are going to have challenges controlling our markets. These wars are costing us BILLIONS and we are paying for that with borrowed money. Sooner or later that will have a negative effect on our economy and we will see rates come down.

For questions or comments about this please contact Chris Scheer at 314.223.9824 or cscheer@cornerstonestl.com.

Goodbye Countrywide and Goodbye to their step brother Indy Mac.

The Federal Reserve stepped in and took over Indy Mac bank on Friday.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-indymac12-2008jul12,0,6071779.story

This comes as no shock to members of the mortgage industry as recently Indy Mac announced it was ceasing its retail mortgage operations.

http://theimbreport.com/?p=161

So why do I call Indy Mac Countrywide’s step brother? For years Indy Mac mirrored all the lending programs that Countrywide created, almost to the point where unless you looked at the login page when you were visiting their site, you could not tell the 2 companies apart. There were times when Countrywide would announce a change in a program or guideline and within hours the same change would be announced at Indy Mac. From an originators standpoint, it was comical how the two companies mirrored each other.

When Countrywide was hammered last year and the Fed stepped in to rescue them (see previous posts) Indy Mac started to take on a life of their own. They for the first time were the first of the two companies to change programs and products reducing their exposure and tightening their lending practices. It was because of these efforts that they managed to last as long as they did. If it were not for comments made by Senator Schumer http://blownmortgage.com/2008/07/08/indymac-bank-run-caused-by-senator-comments/ they may have managed to right their ship and avoid the Fed taking them over.

So why does the Fed rescue one company and take over another? Stock penetration and price. If Indy Mac would have had the numbers of shareholders that Countrywide had world wide or even Bear Stearns, they would have been rescued as opposed to taken over.

For Questions or comments, please contact Chris Scheer at 314.223.9824 or cscheer@cornerstonestl.com.

We are on the cusp!

Undeniably the stock market has become a Bear market. That means that the Dow industrial average is down more than 20%. Sooner or later, those investors are going to start to move to safer investments. What are safer investments you ask? Well I am going to suggest that Mortgage Backed Securities are safer investments. For the last 12 months, this investment has been out of favor with everyone from institutional investors to foreign investors. As housing prices have fallen drastically on both coasts the middle of the country has done a good job of holding value. The Countrywide Mortgage debacle has turned a corner and is now Bank of America’s problem. The Fed has not had to rescue any more mortgage companies for the last 30 days. Second quarter earnings are being reported this week and by now all the major companies have figured out that they cannot hide the losses from the mortgage mess, so those will be dealt with in these reports.

That leaves us with mortgage backed securities in position to be an attractive investment again; especially the Ginnie Mae government loans. With over 70% of all loan applications that I am taking right now being for FHA or VA loans, I am confident that most other successful originators are doing the same. This will create a huge supply for these investments and the hawkers of these securities will have the product to sell and most of these properties will not be those that are going into foreclosure but being bought out of foreclosure by people who have the means and desire to make their mortgage payments. Sooner or later, Wall Street is going to start moving these securities and then the laws of economics will take over. As demand goes up so does price. On a bond, for those of you that don’t remember, when the price goes up the yield (see interest rate) goes down. Thus, even though there is discussion of the Fed raising short term interest rates, what they really are hoping for is that the lowering of short term rates that they did months ago will finally take hold on the long rates and we will see the 30 year fixed rate get below 6% again.

Now I realize that this is optimistic thinking on my part, but if you listen to the doom and gloom prognosticators out there saying that the economy and the stock market are still in for tougher times, someone has to be willing to bet on the bond market. Today I am that person!!!

What a difference a day makes!

Over the past 11 months the mortgage industry has gone through one of the most tumultuous times in recent history. As mortgage companies went out of business, others were rescued by the Federal Reserve and program guidelines changed like your mother told you to change your underwear; DAILY. Many people, loan officers included were caught not being up to date on the ever changing landscape of guideline changes. I can admit I had challenges with 2 condo loans in particular.

In addition to the ever changing landscape of product and guideline changes we have also seen a rate climate that reminds me of a playground toy, the sliding teeter totter! Rates go up one day, down the next, up again then up and up and then a drastic drop followed by more upward movement. I continue to preach to my clients, that locking in is the best defense in the current market. We can always look to renegotiate if rates go down drastically but, once they go up you are screwed. As my old mentor told me, “pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered.

Let’s hope that the reforms FHA has instituted effective July 14, 2008 and the merger of Countrywide and Bank of America signal a change to the whirlwind of changes and the rest of the year is filled with calm waters for borrowers to sail in.

For questions or comments on this post, please contact Chris Scheer at cscheer@cornerstonestl.com or 314.223.9824.